:Product: 0320RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Mar 20 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 20/0133Z from Region 2297 (Now beyond the West limb). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 676 km/s at 19/2224Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1737Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/2347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22318 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar). III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Mar 113 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 019/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 018/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 012/012-017/020-016/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/40/40 Minor Storm 05/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 35/55/55