:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar,
24 Mar, 25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 757 km/s at 22/0834Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 22/0734Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 22/0642Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12337
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 122
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  016/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  016/020-014/012-015/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/45/45
Minor Storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/35/30
Major-severe storm    60/55/55