:Product: 0327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
27/1509Z from Region 2309 (N14W79). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar,
30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
465 km/s at 26/2152Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1817Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0354Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4691 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and two (28 Mar, 29
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 138
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  017/025-017/025-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           25/25/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/35