:Product: 0328RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Mar 28 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 28/1607Z from Region 2303 (N18W78). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 28/0650Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/1954Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 28/0542Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1221 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (29 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (30 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 Mar). III. Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Mar 146 Predicted 29 Mar-31 Mar 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 28 Mar 132 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 017/022-012/015-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/20 Minor Storm 25/05/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 60/35/30