:Product: 0329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
29/1530Z from Region 2303 (N18W92). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar,
01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 28/2234Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/0027Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/0913Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 145
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/150
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  016/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  021/025-019/025-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/30
Minor Storm           30/30/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    70/70/35