:Product: 0330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
30/0152Z from Region 2303 (N18W0*). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
30/0253Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0126Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01
Apr, 02 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
Class M    15/25/25
Class X    01/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Mar 134
Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr 135/145/150
90 Day Mean        30 Mar 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar  005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  013/015-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    30/30/10