:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/0534Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (03 Apr) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (04 Apr,
05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
481 km/s at 02/0839Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/2231Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 02/2023Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    20/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 121
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 135/125/125
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  014/020-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/30/25