:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
04/1154Z from Region 2318 (N09E57). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
607 km/s at 04/0241Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2137Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Apr,
06 Apr, 07 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 122
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 125/125/130
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  007/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/20/20