:Product: 0405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
05/0007Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Apr,
07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
606 km/s at 05/0626Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 04/2356Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2046Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 122
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  007/008-009/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/35/45