:Product: 0407RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 97 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08 Apr,
09 Apr, 10 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 543 km/s at
07/0318Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 496 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Apr), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three
(10 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Apr 111
Predicted   08 Apr-10 Apr 115/120/125
90 Day Mean        07 Apr 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  007/008-014/020-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr-10 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/45/35
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/60/45