:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
10/0803Z from Region 2320 (S13W39). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 493 km/s at 10/0153Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 10/0404Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 10/1829Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (12 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (13
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 115
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 115/120/120
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  028/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  014/018-006/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/05
Minor Storm           15/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/20/10