:Product: 0411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
11/0241Z from Region 2321 (N12E68). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
408 km/s at 11/1450Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 10/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 10/2332Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Apr, 14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 123
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  021/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  006/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/10/10