:Product: 0414RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
13/2323Z from Region 2320 (S14W78). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
358 km/s at 14/1432Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1523Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 14/1523Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (17
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Apr 147
Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr 150/155/155
90 Day Mean        14 Apr 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  012/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  015/020-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/45/25