:Product: 0415RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 16 0525 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2015
********** CORRECTED COPY (Flare Probabilities) **********

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 2321 (N14E23, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the largest flare
of the period, a C7/2n at 15/2023 UTC.  There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (16 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 665 km/s at 15/1556Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 15/0503Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 15/0821Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Apr) and quiet
levels on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Apr 155
Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        15 Apr 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  012/015-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/25/20