:Product: 0416RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Apr 16 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Apr 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 16/0907Z from Region 2324 (N18E34). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr, 19 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 720 km/s at 16/2049Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 16/0503Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2108 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr). III. Event probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Apr 150 Predicted 17 Apr-19 Apr 150/155/155 90 Day Mean 16 Apr 129 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Apr 020/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Apr 025/036 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Apr-19 Apr 016/020-007/008-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Apr-19 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/20 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 45/30/25