:Product: 0418RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/1419Z from Region 2321 (N11W22). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
635 km/s at 17/2305Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/1255Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1349Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3744 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Apr 148
Predicted   19 Apr-21 Apr 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        18 Apr 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr  020/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr  007/008-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/35/35