:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/2145Z from Region 2322 (N11W87). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (23 Apr) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (24 Apr,
25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
618 km/s at 21/2247Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 21/2223Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1359Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (23 Apr, 25 Apr)
and quiet levels on day two (24 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    45/20/20
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 150
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  018/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  015/015-007/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/25/35