:Product: 0423RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/1007Z from Region 2322 (just beyond west limb). There are currently 8
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
555 km/s at 22/2319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2210Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/2138Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 955 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three days (24-26
Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Apr 141
Predicted   24 Apr-26 Apr 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        23 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  007/008-009/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/20