:Product: 0424RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
24/0843Z from Region 2326 (N19W96). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25
Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
432 km/s at 23/2253Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/0201Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/0233Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1181 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Apr 135
Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        24 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  009/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/20/20