:Product: 0425RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/2145Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at
24/2329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1305 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Apr,
27 Apr, 28 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Apr 126
Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        25 Apr 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  008/008-008/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr-28 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/30