:Product: 0427RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (28 Apr, 29 Apr, 30 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
27/1644Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/1131Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/0935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 874 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Apr, 30 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Apr 108
Predicted   28 Apr-30 Apr 110/105/105
90 Day Mean        27 Apr 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Apr  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  006/005-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Apr-30 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/25