:Product: 0428RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 118 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/0519Z from Region 2331 (S09W87). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on day
one (29 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (30 Apr, 01 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 354 km/s at
28/1438Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/1401Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 195 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Apr,
30 Apr, 01 May).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Apr 108
Predicted   29 Apr-01 May 100/095/095
90 Day Mean        28 Apr 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Apr  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May  007/008-007/010-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Apr-01 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/25