:Product: 0429RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Apr 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
29/1634Z from Region 2327 (S08W90). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 338 km/s at
28/2204Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/1316Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/1843Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May)
and quiet levels on day three (02 May).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 104
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 095/095/100
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 129

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  007/010-007/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/20