:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 02 2310 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 May,
04 May, 05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
673 km/s at 02/0420Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2118Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 02/1858Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 May, 04 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 106
Predicted   03 May-05 May 105/108/108
90 Day Mean        02 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  005/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20