:Product: 0503RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/0605Z from Region 2335 (S16E37). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
480 km/s at 02/2232Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/2249Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1753Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (04 May), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (05 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 May).

III.  Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 May 111
Predicted   04 May-06 May 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        03 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  006/005-007/008-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/20/45