:Product: 0505RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
05/1724Z from Region 2335 (S16E11). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May,
08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at
05/1227Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1657Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 May, 07 May) and
quiet levels on day three (08 May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 128
Predicted   06 May-08 May 135/140/145
90 Day Mean        05 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  013/015-010/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/30/10