:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
05/2211Z from Region 2339 (N12E70). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 May, 08 May, 09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 511 km/s at 06/0735Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 06/0615Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 06/1216Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (08 May, 09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    55/60/60
Class X    10/15/15
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 136
Predicted   07 May-09 May 145/150/150
90 Day Mean        06 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  019/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  011/012-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10