:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
08/0409Z from Region 2339 (N13E35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(09 May, 10 May, 11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
422 km/s at 07/2300Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 08/0831Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/0742Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (09 May, 10 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (11 May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 150
Predicted   09 May-11 May 155/155/155
90 Day Mean        08 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  006/005-006/005-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/45