:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
09/0134Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 May, 11 May, 12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 433 km/s at
09/0902Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0815Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1127Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 May), quiet to active levels on day
two (11 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 155
Predicted   10 May-12 May 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        09 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  006/005-009/012-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/40
Minor Storm           01/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/45/60