:Product: 0510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/1711Z from Region 2339 (N13E08). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 May, 12 May,
13 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
430 km/s at 10/0830Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/1749Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2000Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 May) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (12 May, 13 May).

III.  Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 160
Predicted   11 May-13 May 160/165/160
90 Day Mean        10 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  009/012-017/025-019/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor Storm           15/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/60/60