:Product: 0511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 11 2355 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/0409Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May,
14 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
400 km/s at 11/1108Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 10/2232Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/2313Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (12 May, 13
May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 163
Predicted   12 May-14 May 165/160/155
90 Day Mean        11 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  017/025-019/025-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/45