:Product: 0513RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 May 13 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 13/1818Z from Region 2345 (N16W16). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 759 km/s at 13/2056Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 13/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 12/2340Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 12/2235Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 May) and quiet levels on day three (16 May). III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May Class M 30/30/30 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 May 157 Predicted 14 May-16 May 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 13 May 128 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 016/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 032/046 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 018/025-010/012-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/10 Minor Storm 20/10/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 50/40/10