:Product: 0514RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 May 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 14/0731Z from Region 2339 (N11W45). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16 May, 17 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 802 km/s at 14/0105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4130 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 May), quiet to active levels on day two (16 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 May). III. Event probabilities 15 May-17 May Class M 20/20/20 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 May 145 Predicted 15 May-17 May 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 14 May 128 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 025/041 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/012-010/010-016/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/30 Minor Storm 10/10/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/35/45