:Product: 0515RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 15 2230 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
15/0011Z from Region 2342 (N17W22). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
May, 17 May, 18 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
639 km/s at 14/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 8787 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 May, 18 May)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (17 May).

III.  Event probabilities 16 May-18 May
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 May 137
Predicted   16 May-18 May 135/125/115
90 Day Mean        15 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  010/010-016/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May-18 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/30
Minor Storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/45/40