:Product: 0517RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 17 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (20 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 428 km/s at
17/0716Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2057Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 17/1617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9241 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 May, 19 May) and
quiet levels on day three (20 May).

III.  Event probabilities 18 May-20 May
Class M    10/10/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 May 120
Predicted   18 May-20 May 115/105/095
90 Day Mean        17 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 May  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 May  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May  012/015-010/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 May-20 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/30/10