:Product: 0518RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0821Z from Region 2349 (S20E34). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 May,
20 May, 21 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
486 km/s at 18/1918Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 18/2059Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 18/1927Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4939 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (20 May, 21 May).

III.  Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 May 115
Predicted   19 May-21 May 110/108/105
90 Day Mean        18 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May  009/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  010/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/10