:Product: 0519RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1159Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May,
21 May, 22 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 576 km/s at 19/1351Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 19/0053Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 18/2159Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 May) and quiet levels on day three (22 May).

III.  Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 May 110
Predicted   20 May-22 May 108/105/105
90 Day Mean        19 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  015/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  011/012-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/10