:Product: 0520RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/0812Z from Region 2349 (S21E04). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 May,
22 May, 23 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
652 km/s at 20/0410Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1543Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0001Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 125 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23
May).

III.  Event probabilities 21 May-23 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 May 106
Predicted   21 May-23 May 105/100/100
90 Day Mean        20 May 128

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May-23 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10