:Product: 0523RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1739Z from Region 2353 (N07W18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May,
25 May, 26 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at
23/0608Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 23/0434Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/0456Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 295 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26
May).

III.  Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 May 098
Predicted   24 May-26 May 098/105/105
90 Day Mean        23 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10