:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May,
26 May, 27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 359 km/s at
24/2032Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/1249Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 183 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May, 27
May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 099
Predicted   25 May-27 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        24 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/25