:Product: 0526RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 May,
28 May, 29 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 368 km/s at
26/1731Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 26/1617Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/1613Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 May), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (28 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 May).

III.  Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 May 095
Predicted   27 May-29 May 090/090/095
90 Day Mean        26 May 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May  006/005-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/30