:Product: 0527RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (28 May, 29 May)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (30 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached averaged
velocities less than 350 km/s. Total IMF reached a peak of 7 nT. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1102Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (28 May, 30
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (29 May).

III.  Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M    01/05/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 May 095
Predicted   28 May-30 May 095/095/100
90 Day Mean        27 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  007/008-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/25