:Product: 0529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (30 May) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 443 km/s at
29/1843Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/0224Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1219Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    01/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 092
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 090/095/100
90 Day Mean        29 May 126

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  007/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10