:Product: 0605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
05/1734Z from Region 2361 (N16E51). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 311 km/s at
05/0837Z. Total IMF reached 4 nT at 05/2013Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 05/0904Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 126
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 130/135/135
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  008/008-010/012-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/45