:Product: 0607RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
06/2234Z from Region 2365 (S13E64). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Jun, 09 Jun, 10 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 436 km/s at
07/0324Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 07/1608Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/1930Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Jun), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (09 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (10 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jun 137
Predicted   08 Jun-10 Jun 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        07 Jun 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jun  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  016/020-020/028-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jun-10 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           15/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    45/50/40