:Product: 0610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
10/0226Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
691 km/s at 10/0943Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1335Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0512Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4602 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jun), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (12 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three
(13 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 135
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun   NA/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  008/008-015/020-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/35
Minor Storm           05/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/55/45