:Product: 0613RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/0729Z from Region 2360 (N15W82). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (14 Jun, 15 Jun) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
579 km/s at 12/2231Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0825Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3601 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    30/25/20
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 136
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 135/126/124
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 125

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  013/016-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/35/25