:Product: 0614RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Jun 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/0059Z from Region 2360 (N15W91). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (15 Jun) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 646 km/s at 14/1944Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 14/1010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/0824Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1270 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jun). III. Event probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun Class M 30/20/15 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 05/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Jun 132 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/012-007/008-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun-17 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 15/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 45/25/10