:Product: 0618RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
18/1736Z from Region 2371 (N12E39). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
605 km/s at 18/0301Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0912Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/1136Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at
18/1445Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1198 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21
Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and two (19
Jun, 20 Jun) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (21 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M    70/70/60
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     80/80/60
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Jun 151
Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 145/147/148
90 Day Mean        18 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  006/006-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10