:Product: 0620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
20/0648Z from Region 2371 (N13E14). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 366 km/s at
20/1537Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 20/1055Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -2 nT at 20/1015Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 20/0050Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 1342 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jun) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Jun, 23 Jun). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22
Jun, 23 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    70/70/60
Class X    15/15/10
Proton     40/40/40
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 135
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 127

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun   005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  007/008-019/025-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/40/40
Minor Storm           01/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/65/65